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AI is poised to accelerate the industrialization of space. The nation that leads in AI might secure control of the space frontier before rivals realize it’s too late to catch up.

AI race, space industrialization, orbital factories, von Neumann probes, space domain awareness, winner-take-all, self-replicating spacecraft, military escalation, lunar south pole, robotic automation, orbital shipyards, launch capacity, Kessler syndrome, artificial intelligence, space hegemony

In an excerpt from his new book, Garrison Lovely argues that stopping the AGI race is entirely possible, but business interests stand in the way.

AI arms race, AGI, compute governance, export controls, Nvidia, AI chip restrictions, Obsoleting Project, AI verification, China AI regulation, U.S.-China AI agreement, frontier AI, AI safety, AI red lines, Trump administration, Garrison Lovely

Deterrence can be the starting point for US-China cooperation.

MAIM, mutual assured AI malfunction, MAD, AI arms race, US-China cooperation, Schelling and Halperin, strategic stability, deterrence dynamics, AI sabotage, chip export controls, arms control treaties, nuclear command-and-control, rogue AI systems, superintelligence, AI verification

Consciousness, sentience, and agency are three ways that something could matter morally. In AI, unlike in animals, they may not come as a package.

AI welfare, AI consciousness, sentience, agency, moral consideration, Jeff Sebo, LLMs, model welfare, reinforcement learning, global workspace, forward passes, model personas, instance personas, Anthropic, ethical uncertainty

Utilitarians at AI companies imagine a cosmos filled with blissful AIs. They might risk human extinction to achieve it.

utilitarianism, AI companies, human extinction, sentient AI, effective altruism, longtermism, accelerationism, successionism, Anthropic, OpenAI, DeepMind, AI governance, x-risk, hx-risk, Eigenism

Public-key encryption keeps your messaging and web browsing private, but it depends on shaky math assumptions. AI-powered math might break it.

public-key encryption, post-quantum cryptography, AI cryptanalysis, RSA encryption, Shor's algorithm, end-to-end encryption, quantum computers, NIST, Signal, HTTPS, Minicrypt, Cryptomania, harvest-now-decrypt-later, government surveillance, Claude Mythos Preview

Several US states have moved to ban AI legal status and reject the possibility of AI consciousness. We should keep our options open instead.

AI personhood, exclusion bills, legal personhood, AI consciousness, AI sentience, AI rights, AI legal status, state legislation, Wisconsin AB 959, marriage and AI, AI accountability, AI liability, corporate personhood, artificial intelligence law, AI regulation

Society is not prepared for a flood of agents. We need new protocols and standards, such as Agent ID, to make agents accountable to our legal and financial systems.

AI agents, agent ID, pairwise pseudonymous identifiers, model deployment cards, legal personhood, autonomous agents, AI governance, data escrows, payment systems, KYC, financial systems, standards and protocols, accountability, agent infrastructure, regulatory bodies

For years, the federal government has required insurers to price hypothetical terrorist attacks. It should run the same exercise for the most severe AI risks.

frontier AI, catastrophic AI risk, TRIP data call, Terrorism Risk Insurance Program, insurance underwriting, war-gaming, Treasury Department, Federal Insurance Office, cyberattack scenarios, AI policy, loss estimates, public-private cooperation, AI regulation, terrorism insurance, Claude Mythos

As AI makes legal work significantly cheaper, the burden on courts may increase. Some areas of law could see precedent shift faster as a result.

AI and the Rise of Hyperlaw, hyperlaw, artificial intelligence and the law, legal change, common law, contract completeness, litigation effect, contracting effect, settlement rate, tort law, trial attorneys, legal productivity, precedent, courts and disputes, AI legal writing

New EU and California laws require AI companies, and eventually camera makers, to sign their media outputs. It’s our best chance to tell what’s real.

content provenance, Content Credentials, C2PA, EU AI Act Article 50, California AI Transparency Act, AI-generated content labels, deepfakes, metadata stripping, analog hole, forged manifests, digitalSourceType, provenance metadata, content authenticity, camera manufacturers, AI governance

If AI reaches the point where it can do the cognitive work humans do, robots will proliferate. Standard data on US industry implies a fully automated economy could double its output roughly every year, with no further breakthroughs required.

AGI, artificial general intelligence, industrial explosion, robotics, input-output analysis, autonomous economy, machine labor, physical output, robot workers, self-replicating economy, industrial automation, Leontief tables, economic growth, AI labor, automated production

Skeptics of an AI slowdown deal with China say we’d need futuristic tech to make it cheat-proof. Instead, the US and China could just give auditors comprehensive access to major AI companies.

international AI slowdown, whole-lab inspection, frontier AI companies, AI verification, joint US-China audits, autonomous AI R&D, post-training restrictions, compute telemetry, human inspectors, AI governance tools, AI safety, frontier labs, deliberate pacing, inspection regime

Researchers who find dangerous flaws in frontier models have nowhere safe to report them. AI needs the disclosure system that cybersecurity built decades ago.

AI jailbreak disclosure, frontier models, responsible disclosure, bug bounty programs, NDAs, universal jailbreaks, coordinated disclosure, CBRN safety, cybersecurity norms, third-party clearinghouse, model safeguards, jailbreak severity rubric, Anthropic, OpenAI, Google DeepMind

Letting AI developers pick their own safety auditors creates a conflict of interest. Requiring liability insurance instead would put insurers’ own capital behind risk assessments.

frontier AI regulation, private governance, independent verification organizations, mandatory insurance, AI safety auditors, liability insurance, Underwriters Laboratories, regulatory markets, model certification, AI liability, insurance pricing risk, frontier developers, California SB 813, FRONTIER Act, AI audit

Today’s drones can already navigate indoors, track down humans, and deliver a lethal payload. Attackers willing to kill indiscriminately don’t need to wait for much else.

autonomous drones, drone swarms, weapons of mass destruction, slaughterbots, urban drone attack, counterdrone defenses, fiber-optic FPV drones, AI targeting, military technology, drone WMDs, rogue states, counterdrone technology, EMP weapons, drone proliferation, urban warfare

The public deserves a say over the values of government-procured AIs.

public reasoning fidelity, government AI procurement, AI model character, ideological neutrality, Commission on Public AI Use, frontier AI models, model selection, democratic oversight of AI, US Sentencing Commission, Administrative Conference of the United States, deliberative polls, policy analysis sycophancy, AI governance, public AI values

One of the most valuable things governments can build today is the capacity to govern advanced AI competently in the future.

radical optionality, AI governance, transformative AI, frontier AI models, AI regulation, whistleblower protections, reporting requirements, transparency mandates, UK AI Security Institute, information-gathering authorities, state AI laws, model evaluations, tort liability, management-based regulation, private governance

American leaders agree that the AI race will shape the balance of power with China. But they can’t agree on how to ensure the technology advances American values.

Sino-American AI competition, AI race with China, American values, Chinese values, breakaway tech dominance, encoded values, emergent control regimes, democratic AI, techno-authoritarianism, AI governance, AI diplomacy, nuclear arms control, Global South, lethal autonomous weapons, President’s Council on AI

For decades, no nuclear power could disarm its rivals without provoking devastating retaliation. A large AI lead could change that.

AI capabilities gap, nuclear deterrence, mutual assured destruction, counterforce strike, nuclear primacy, launch on warning, missile defense, nuclear submarines, AI-assisted R&D, aerospace manufacturing, satellite constellations, strategic stability, arms control, military megaprojects, nuclear taboo

US restrictions on frontier AI would have come eventually, but few expected sudden export controls. They could be Europe's wake-up call on AI sovereignty.

Anthropic, Fable 5, Mythos 5, export controls, Europe AI sovereignty, frontier AI access, US restrictions, AI governance, compute capacity, European Union, AI Act, cybersecurity, middle powers, Trump administration, European dependence

AI’s economic impacts will unfold through several waves, with different policy approaches relevant to each phase.

Researchers and policymakers are fixated on the fear of AI launching nuclear weapons—to the neglect of more realistic threats.

AIs with access to all our data will soon be able to vouch for us to others. As people come to trust AI judgments of character, not sharing one will look suspicious.

Western AI safety treatises are surprisingly well-received in Chinese tech media. What does this mean for international AI policy?